As we approach the 2026 season, one name stands out as a wildcard in the Atlanta Braves' roster: Joey Wentz. While the spotlight often shines on high-profile free agent acquisitions, Wentz's journey is a fascinating tale of resilience and potential redemption. Could he be the surprise breakout player of the year? Let’s dive into his story and find out.
How Did Wentz Land Here?
Joey Wentz was drafted 40th overall by the Braves in the 2016 Competitive Balance Round A. Once a highly touted prospect, he quickly climbed the ranks, earning the 2017 Pitcher of the Year title in the South Atlantic League (now High-A East). He also snagged Post-Season All-Star honors and was recognized by Baseball America as a Low Class A All-Star. By 2019, he posted a solid 4.20 ERA, 3.97 FIP, and 3.64 xFIP over 128 2/3 innings in Double-A. However, his performance dipped, and the Braves traded him to the Tigers alongside Travis Demeritte for Shane Greene at the 2019 deadline. Greene’s impact was minimal, but Wentz’s journey was far from over.
After a promising five-start stretch with the Tigers in 2022, Wentz struggled in 2023 as a swingman. He was designated for assignment three times—bouncing from the Tigers to the Pirates, then the Twins, before the Braves reclaimed him on waivers in July 2025. At that point, the Braves’ pitching staff was desperate for innings, and Wentz became one of the few acquisitions who truly delivered.
What Were the Expectations?
Heading into 2025, Wentz was a Quad-A archetype—good enough for a roster spot but not quite impactful enough to stick around long-term. His career numbers (133 ERA-, 118 FIP-, 114 xFIP-) and 0.1 fWAR in 205 2/3 innings screamed “depth player.” With no minor league options left, he was a high-risk, low-reward gamble. But the Braves, in dire need of arms, took the chance.
2025: The Comeback Story
Wentz’s reunion with the Braves was nothing short of remarkable. Across 64 innings (13 starts, 1 relief appearance), he racked up 1.3 fWAR—more than he’d accumulated in his entire career prior. His peripherals (116 ERA-, 85 FIP-, 97 xFIP-) were league-average, and he even posted a below-average HR/FB rate, a rarity for the 2025 Braves. Overall, he finished the year with 1.1 fWAR in 98 innings, a significant step forward.
What Clicked?
The key to Wentz’s success? A revamped four-seam fastball. By raising its axis point, he added four inches of vertical break, giving the pitch more ride and creating separation from his secondary offerings. This adjustment reduced his hard-hit rate to 30%, improved his ground ball rate to 47%, and boosted his chase and whiff rates to 31% and 30%, respectively. His extension also increased to the 93rd percentile, making his fastball far more effective despite its modest 93-94 mph velocity.
Highlights and Low Points
Wentz’s best outing came against the Royals on July 30, where he pitched 6 2/3 scoreless innings with a 7/3 K/BB ratio. However, not everything was smooth sailing. His final nine outings saw a dip in performance, largely due to poor luck on balls in play (141 ERA-, 97 FIP-, 103 xFIP-). His worst start? A September 7 drubbing by the Mariners, where defensive errors and back-to-back homers ended his day early.
2026 Outlook: Can He Sustain It?
Projections for 2026 are modest, with ZiPS forecasting 0.5 WAR over 89 1/3 innings. Steamer suggests he’ll be closer to replacement level, primarily in relief. But here’s where it gets interesting: Can Wentz build on his 2025 success, or was it a fluke? His pitch mix and command haven’t drastically changed, yet his results with the Braves were transformative. If he can replicate his July-August form, he could compete for the fifth starter spot in Spring Training—assuming the Braves’ rotation isn’t fully healthy.
Controversial Take: Is Wentz the Real Deal?
While many view Wentz as a temporary fix, his 2025 performance raises questions. Did the Braves unlock something sustainable, or was it a short-lived miracle? And if he thrives in 2026, will it silence the doubters who labeled him a Quad-A player? Let’s spark a debate: Do you think Joey Wentz has what it takes to become a reliable starter, or is he destined for a bullpen role? Share your thoughts in the comments—this is one player whose story is far from over.
